Tammy Baldwin Wins Third Senate Term as Trump Takes White House

By Jack Kelly
Wisconsin Watch

Former President Donald Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential election early Wednesday morning. Hours later the Associated Press affirmed the win after results showed Trump narrowly won Wisconsin by about 33,000 votes or 1 point.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin won another term as well, though by her narrowest margin yet. The Associated Press called the race at 12:42 p.m. Wednesday. Baldwin’s Republican challenger Eric Hovde trailed by less than a percentage point, falling short of Trump’s total by more than 50,000 votes. It’s the latest case of split-ticket voters having clout in Wisconsin after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won re-election in 2022 while Sen. Ron Johnson won a third term by a narrower margin.

Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the state Senate, flipping enough seats to set up a possible takeover of the chamber in 2026. They also narrowed the Republican majority in the Assembly, electing a representative from Sheboygan for the first time since Republicans gerrymandered the state’s legislative districts in 2011. But several Republican incumbents won new districts that favored Democrats.

Trump spoke to a crowd at Mar-a-Lago in West Palm Beach, Florida, after the Associated Press projected Trump would win Pennsylvania, a critical state considered a must-win for Vice President Kamala Harris.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said.

The Associated Press described Trump’s victory as an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago, sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts.

The victory validates his bare-knuckle approach to politics. He attacked his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, in deeply personal – often misogynistic and racist – terms as he pushed an apocalyptic picture of a country overrun by violent migrants. The coarse rhetoric, paired with an image of hypermasculinity, resonated with angry voters – particularly men – in a deeply polarized nation.

As president, he’s vowed to pursue an agenda centered on dramatically reshaping the federal government and pursuing retribution against his perceived enemies.

The results cap a historically tumultuous and competitive election season that included two assassination attempts targeting Trump and a shift to a new Democratic nominee just a month before the party’s convention. Trump will inherit a range of challenges when he assumes office on Jan. 20, including heightened political polarization and global crises that are testing America’s influence abroad.

His win against Harris, the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket, marks the second time he has defeated a female rival in a general election. Harris, the current vice president, rose to the top of the ticket after President Joe Biden exited the race amid alarm about his advanced age. Despite an initial surge of energy around her campaign, she struggled during a compressed timeline to convince disillusioned voters that she represented a break from an unpopular administration.

Harris’ campaign manager announced earlier in the night that Harris would address her supporters Wednesday.

The Associated Press called Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral College votes for Trump at 4:34 a.m. Wednesday. A tabulator problem forced election workers in Milwaukee to restart their count of absentee ballots earlier in the day Tuesday.

Here’s when other high-profile statewide races here in Wisconsin were called by the Associated Press:

• 2018 U.S. Senate race: Tuesday, Nov. 6, 8:48 p.m.
• 2018 gubernatorial race: Wednesday, Nov. 7, 1:24 a.m.
• 2020 presidential race: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 1:16 p.m.
• 2022 gubernatorial race: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 1:12 a.m.
• 2022 U.S. Senate race: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 11:46 a.m.

Check out the Wisconsin Watch voter guide for results from the Associated Press for each individual race in Wisconsin.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Republicans poised to hold 6-2 House edge

Republicans were poised to win all six seats they currently control in Wisconsin’s House delegation.

As of Wednesday morning the Associated Press had called winners in every race but the 3rd Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden had an 11,000-vote lead over Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke with 99% of votes reported.

Incumbent Democrats Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore and Republicans Bryan Steil, Scott Fitzgerald, Glenn Grothman and Tom Tiffany won their races.

Thanking his family, friends and Trump, newcomer Republican Tony Wied gave a victory speech to a crowd of supporters at The Legacy Hotel in Green Bay, Wisconsin. He defeated Democratic candidate Kristin Lyerly by nearly 15 points.

Wied’s campaign victory in Wisconsin’s largely red 8th Congressional District came as no surprise. Previous Rep. Michael Gallagher, also a Republican, won the district by comfortable margins during each election cycle between 2016 and 2022.

Wied credited much of his success to an endorsement from Trump, saying that Trump’s “support for me (during) this campaign was second to none.”

Even before Green Bay precincts reported any significant results, local Republican candidates felt confident about the election.

Patrick Buckley, candidate for the 89th Assembly District, said he thought efforts to reach voters and canvass would end up paying off.

“We did a wonderful job, and hopefully voters will see that,” Buckley said. “I think for Republicans, it should be a good night.”

Buckley, a first-time Assembly candidate, lost to Democrat Ryan Spaude, also a first-time Assembly candidate, in the Green Bay district.

Attendees at Cooke’s watch party followed the tug-of-war over Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District for hours Tuesday night. 

The campaign projected incoming results at the front of the event in downtown Eau Claire. Mild cheers broke out a few times as Cooke took a slight lead, but by 10 p.m. enthusiasm for result updates dampened. 

Cooke didn’t give a victory or concession speech during Tuesday’s event which ended long before the outcome was finalized. But Cooke told WPR and Wisconsin Watch that if things didn’t go in her favor she’d tell her supporters “that we ran a hell of a race.”

“We really left no stone unturned,” Cooke said. “We’ve really pulled people off the sidelines. People who don’t always see themselves reflected in the political process and I’m really proud of the work that we’ve done in that way.”

– Julius Shieh, Addie Costello

Citizenship voting amendment passes

Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment that prohibits foreign nationals from voting in the state.

Republicans across the country have been pushing voters to adopt constitutional amendments that explicitly prohibit non-U.S. citizens from voting. The move was spurred by the District of Columbia and municipalities in California, Maryland and Vermont allowing non-citizens to vote in local elections.

The Wisconsin Constitution states that every U.S. citizen who is at least 18 can vote. The amendment revises that language to read that only U.S. citizens can vote in federal, state and local elections held in Wisconsin.

The amendment was on the ballot in seven other states besides Wisconsin this cycle, according to Ballotpedia. North Dakota, Alabama, Florida, Colorado, Ohio and Louisiana have already adopted it.

Democrats contend the measures could create hurdles for legal voters and lead people to believe that the problem of noncitizens voting is bigger than it really is. Data from states indicates that voting by noncitizens is rare, although Republican officials in Alabama, Georgia, Ohio and Texas have highlighted voter registration reviews that turned up potential noncitizens.

– Todd Richmond, The Associated Press

Republicans return smaller Assembly majority as incumbents win new districts

Despite less friendly voting maps and considerable spending from Democrats, Republicans won a majority in the Wisconsin Assembly, extending 13 years of GOP control of the Legislature’s lower chamber by two more years.

Republican success on Tuesday was fueled in part by incumbents. Rep. Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville, defeated Democratic challenger Elizabeth Grabe in a district that a Wisconsin Watch analysis of previous voting patterns suggested was almost 56% Democratic, according to unofficial results. Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield, breezed past Democratic challenger Yee Leng Xiong in a district that a Wisconsin Watch analysis rated as just 2% more Republican than Democratic.

The election results were a gut punch for Democrats, who were eager to win back a majority in the Assembly for the first time in more than a decade after the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court threw out Republican-gerrymandered voting maps last year. 

In the months leading up to the election, Democrats were confident they could win back the majority. Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, told reporters during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that her party would win a 52-seat Assembly majority in the fall. They missed the mark on Tuesday.

Trevor Ford, a spokesperson for the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, offered a simple assessment of returns early on Wednesday: “Wisconsin Assembly Republicans will hold the majority.”

The exact size of the majority was unclear as of early Wednesday morning.

There were a few bright spots for Democrats, who seemed poised to return to Madison in January with bolstered ranks. In the 26th Assembly District, Joe Sheehan unseated Republican Rep. Amy Binsfeld in a district that reunited the city of Sheboygan into one Assembly district.

A spokesperson for the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee didn’t return a request for comment early Wednesday.

– Jack Kelly

Nov. 6, 12:30 a.m.

Democrats break GOP supermajority in state Senate

Democrats broke Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate on Tuesday, according to unofficial results, reining in overwhelming GOP control in the chamber that threatened the veto authority of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.

The exact number of seats each party will control come January remained unclear as of early Wednesday morning, though Republicans had secured the 17 seats needed for a majority while Democrats flipped at least two seats and were leading the vote totals in two others, dropping Republicans below their current 22-seat supermajority.

One flip came in the 14th Senate District, a Democratic-leaning toss-up district that stretches from the Madison area north and west to encompass Portage, Wisconsin Dells, Baraboo, Reedsburg and Richland Center. Democrat Sarah Keyeski defeated incumbent Sen. Joan Ballweg by 2 points, according to unofficial returns.

Another came in the 30th Senate District, where redistricting had caused incumbent Republican Sen. Eric Wimberger to move into the 2nd Senate District, where he will replace retiring moderate Republican Sen. Rob Cowles. Democrat Jamie Wall, a business consultant and third-time Democratic candidate, defeated Republican Allouez village president Jim Rafter, in the 30th.

“Senate Democrats have broken the Republican’s manufactured supermajority, and I remain optimistic for our candidates who are still awaiting final vote tallies,” Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, D-Middleton, told Wisconsin Watch in a statement.

 

Results in the 8th and 18th showed Democrats poised to further chip away at the GOP majority, but the races were too close to call as of early Wednesday morning. Those gains could help Democrats secure a majority in 2026, when the other 17 recently redrawn Senate seats are up for four-year terms.

A spokesperson for the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Wednesday.

– Jack Kelly

Nov. 6, 12:30 a.m.

Sheboygan incumbent loses Assembly seat without local GOP support in newly drawn toss-up district

A freshman Republican Assembly member’s fight to hold her Sheboygan seat was complicated after she lost the support of the Sheboygan County GOP earlier this year. The infighting could be a sign of the changing face of the Republican Party in Wisconsin.

Freshman Rep. Amy Binsfeld, R-Sheboygan, views the local party as extremist and distanced herself from it in January due to its anti-abortion stance and member concerns about election integrity, according to local party chair Russ Otten.

“I find that incredible in a person who’s running as a Republican in a very tight race,” Otten told Wisconsin Watch.

Text messages posted by the county GOP in September show Binsfeld asked the party to distribute her campaign signs, but they refused to do so after she declined to meet with the party’s leaders, Otten said.

“I feel you should probably confirm that choice with all Republican voters in the 26th District being you are willing to give up a seat to the Democrats in November,” Binsfeld wrote in the exchange. “I’m asking for signs to be available to Republican voters.”  

Binsfeld did not immediately reply to Wisconsin Watch’s request for comment.

“She does not like the fact that our county party has become a patriot-driven party,” Otten said. “She is a cohort of Robin Vos in Madison, and we see Robin Vos as part of the problem.”

Binsfeld lost to Democratic newcomer Joe Sheehan, who decided to run earlier this year after new legislative maps reunited the city of Sheboygan, which was split in half to secure two Republican seats under Wisconsin’s previously gerrymandered maps. The district is now a toss-up, with a slight Democratic lean.

– Hallie Claflin

Update: Nov. 6, 1 a.m.

Milwaukee setback stands out in otherwise smooth Wisconsin election

Polls closed across Wisconsin after an Election Day marked most notably by a human error in Milwaukee that prompted city election officials to count 31,000 absentee ballots all over again, potentially delaying the state’s results for hours.

In Milwaukee, election chief Paulina Gutiérrez projected that the city’s counting of absentee ballots would go well into Wednesday morning, partially a result of her decision Tuesday afternoon to make election workers count 31,000 absentee ballots all over again because some staff didn’t lock tabulator doors in the early morning. 

For security reasons, those panel doors — which cover the on/off switch and sometimes a slot for USB drives — are to be locked during counting, though other security measures ensured there was no chance of tampering.

The decision to restart the count, city spokesperson Jeff Fleming said, was “out of an abundance of caution.”

Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe said the commission didn’t weigh in on the city’s decision to rerun the batch of ballots, but she praised the city’s transparency throughout the process.

After Gutiérrez made that decision, the city put out an all-call to every Milwaukee employee to help election officials count the ballots that had already been tabulated. Between 30 and 50 city staff from health, fire and other departments came to help, city spokesperson Caroline Reinwald said.

“Things are moving really smoothly right now and quickly, so hopefully this isn’t actually that much of a delay,” she said.

But Republican leaders criticized the oversight that led to the second count. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin called Milwaukee’s central count “grotesquely disorganized.” State GOP Chair Brian Schimming said about election officials, “You had one job,” adding that the election operation had gone “ridiculously wrong.”

Johnson said his concerns about Milwaukee election officials’ oversight could be alleviated if they present him video logs of the central counting site as well as records from the initial and second count of the 31,000 absentee ballots, including how they’re split by party. There are video streams of central count, but vote totals weren’t exported in the manner that Johnson was seeking, though each vote has a paper trail, city officials stated.

Election Day in Milwaukee was also marked by a lawsuit filed by the Republican National Committee, alleging that GOP election observers were being restricted at city election sites. The GOP walked back its claims at a Tuesday hearing, conceding there weren’t any issues.

Outside of Milwaukee, election officials faced few issues. 

In Thornapple, a northern Wisconsin town that faced a Justice Department lawsuit over its decision not to use accessible voting machines in the past, election officials did have a voting machine in use, said Erin Webster, a local resident who was an election observer on Tuesday.

The state had a surge of early in-person voting, but election officials said that Tuesday was still very busy. Melissa Kono, who has been a clerk in the small northern Wisconsin town of Burnside since 2013, said it was the most intense election she had ever administered in terms of turnout.

— Alexander Shur, Votebeat

11 p.m.

This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.