BlackEconomics.org®
Introduction
BlackEconomics.org specializes in providing economic knowledge and expertise concerning Black economic concepts, issues, policies, and plans—including forecasting. While we profess no prophetic or visionary powers, the record shows that we have been among those who have used logical reasoning to forecast future conditions that are materializing now before our very eyes.(i)
This brief essay highlights recent political economy developments reported in the press that are consistent with our forecasts; it confirms that these developments represent rollbacks and doors slamming in Black Americans’ (Afrodescendants’) faces; it interprets the economic consequences of these developments for Black Americans; and we conclude the essay with yet another call for Black Americans’ to unify and plan a strategic way ahead.
Slammed Doors
The following are selected examples of doors slammed in Black Americans’ faces:
- After four years as the first ever Black American President of a US television news network and after navigating MSNBC to the number two spot among news networks behind Fox New and ahead of CNN in 2024, in mid-January 2025 Rashida Jones announced that she was stepping down. Importantly, the MSNBC network experienced declines in viewership after the November election, which is typical of networks that are aligned with losing candidates. Also, although MSNBC is part of a reshuffling of its parent company’s (Comcast’s) subsidiaries, MSNBC’s name is not expected to change. What we cannot forget is that following the election the Trump Administration expressed an intent, as we reported recently, to be “brutal with media opposition.”(ii) We ask: Is it logical for an enterprise to protect its bottom line and avoid attacks by jettisoning a likely target?
- Look out for DMV (District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia) Black economies to take an economic hit in the near term. Press reports are that the new Trump Administration has placed all diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)-related Federal Government personnel on paid “administrative leave.” With no way to perfectly predict the future, but with unmistakable and unavoidable DEI “handwriting on the wall” everywhere, it may be prudent to anticipate terminations of a considerable number of Black American middle managers and higher Federal Government employees who occupy DEI positions. These positions provide compensation that is well above the national median. What we do not know—but estimate to be significant—is the number of Black American Federal Government employees at the middle-management and above level, who occupy DEI positions. During and after our Federal Government service, we observed a repeated pattern of highly capable and performing Black American subject matter experts being steered into DEI-type positions in the Federal Government. Up next: Potential terminations of Black American DEI-related employees at the state and local government levels across the land; where it has not already occurred.
- The new administration’s decision to backtrack on former Climate Change policies and to promote/facilitate expansion of fossil fuel production is a “two-edged” sword for Black Americans. Black Americans may derive benefits from one aspect of increased fossil fuel exploration and production: The cost-of-living might decline slightly from decreased expenditures on energy due to increased supplies of fossil fuels. However, it is well documented that Black Americans often reside near fossil fuel processing and/or refining facilities and suffer a variety of serious illness due to our exposure to byproducts from that production. Pick your poison!Also, we should not forget that relatively remote regions that are likely to benefit most from the expected surge in fossil fuel exploration and production, such as North Dakota (the fossil fuel bonanza that kicked off during Pres. Trump’s first administration produced an economic boom in North Dakota), are not likely to reduce Black Americans’ income and wealth gaps with White Americans because there are no significant Black American populations residing in these remote regions.
- There are reports that the new administration plans to collaborate with investors from artificial intelligence (AI) industries to enable $500 billion in new investments. Of course, this pales in comparison with former Pres. Joe Biden’s investments in the US economy through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (~$1.2 trillion) and the CHIPS and Science Act (~$0.3 trillion) alone. However, the $500 billion in new AI investments are likely to produce only small direct economic benefits for Black Americans. As BlackEconomics.org reported just two weeks ago while analyzing Federal Government spending, a sizeable share of US Government spending is for research and development (R&D, considered investment spending) that produces new intellectual property. Unfortunately, “Black Americans are not well positioned to benefit much at all from intellectual property formation” that arises from R&D investments; it is unlikely that the proposed AI R&D investment spending will be different.(iii)
- The final slammed door concerns how two interconnected (but not necessarily well- coordinated) and newly announced economic policies could spell economic hardship for all budget-constrained Americans–but especially for Black Americans. The new administration announced plans to impose new tariffs on imports. Economists are the first to remind assessors of a new or higher-level tax (in this case, an import tariff is a tax on imports) that sellers (foreign exporters in this case) pass taxes on to consumers by raising the price of goods sold; thereby producing an uptick in the price level (inflation). This tariff policy action is aimed at China, which has a longstanding and large “goods” (as opposed to “services”) trade surplus with the US. That is, China’s exports to the US (US imports from China) far exceed US exports to China (China’s imports from the US). We estimate that consumers who are budget constrained will feel a pinch from new or higher tariffs (taxes) on imports—especially food. Importantly, the US imports more food than it exports and needs food imports to meet the nations’ food consumption requirements.
Now couple the new import tariff policy action with newly proposed immigration policies that are likely to reduce substantially the agriculture labor force. Theoretically, nonimmigrant workers would only be attracted as replacement labor for the agriculture industry if they were offered higher wages than they already receive. If farmers hire replacement labor and pay higher wages, then the former will typically pass the higher wage cost on to consumers in the form of higher food prices. In other words, the two economic policy actions discussed here (import tariffs (taxes) and a new immigration policy) are likely to be inflationary. Relatedly, we should not forget that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) recently completed a round of monetary policy actions to bring inflation under control; but inflation remains above the FRB’s 2.0 percent policy target.(iv) Finally, economic theory posits that both policies may produce other unfavorable economic effects.
Conclusion
These five slammed door examples are not favorable for Black Americans. They reverberate: “You do not matter! You are not organized (unified)! You do not practice ‘group economics’ to generate economic power! You have no plan to navigate your group (Black Americans) strategically in response to our actions that are designed to benefit us (White Republicans)!” In a worst-case scenario and as the new administration operationalizes its change program, one may find that connecting dots that appear could guide many Black Americans to political and socioeconomic conditions that resemble those experienced more than six decades ago.
Is this a loud wake-up call for Black Americans? How will we respond? Why not consider transforming our minds so that we view the world realistically and not through our rose-colored glasses that have enabled our light slumber and landed us where we are today? Why not adopt cultural principles and values that are unifying and enabling? Why not consider the Long-Term Strategic Plan for Black America as a starting point for formulating an agreed strategic agenda that addresses Black America’s current, near-, medium-, and long-term future requirements? Do we recognize that the rest of the world (even small stateless People, such as those in Gaza) is awake and fighting for preferred positions in the world? They know that others will not fight on their behalf. Why do we (Black Americans) consider ourselves a special case and sit and wait for the magical appearance of grace, love, mercy, and justice to arise spontaneously and prevail without our efforts to impose them? The just-referenced magic has never occurred. It never will.
©B Robinson
012425
End Notes
i Brooks Robinson. “Cutting Lifelines.” https://www.blackeconomics.org/BELit/cl.pdf (February 10, 2023). “Lifelines Cut.” https://www.blackeconomics.org/BEFuture/llc.pdf (February 17, 2023). “The Science of Loss Reversal.” https://www.blackeconomics.org/BELit/tslr110824.pdf (November 8, 2024). BlackEconomics.org: Honolulu (Ret. 012425).
ii Brooks Robinson (2024). “2024 Open Letter to Black Americans (Afrodescendants) Concerning the Media.” https://blackeconomics.org/BEMedia/2024oltbacm.pdf (December 27). BlackEconomics.org: Honolulu. (Ret. 012425).
iii Brooks Robinson (2025). “Are U.S. and Black America’s Interests Aligned?” https://blackeconomics.org/BELit/ausabaia011025.pdf (January 10). BlackEconomics.org: Honolulu (Ret. 012425).
iv The US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in a January 15, 2025 release that the “All Items” Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. www.bls.gov (Ret. 012425).