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The Ferguson Effect: Real or Imagined?

October 31, 2015

Capitol Report

By State Representative, Leon D. Young

Leon D. Young

Leon D. Young

This past week, FBI Director, James Comey, had occasion to offer some provocative remarks on the so-called Ferguson Effect before a gathering of the International Association of Chiefs of Police that was held in Chicago, Illinois. What’s the Ferguson Effect you ask?

According to St. Louis police chief Sam Dotson, who coined the term last November during a press conference, the Ferguson Effect refers to situations in which police have slowed down enforcement activity due to public scrutiny, which has led to more crime, including homicides.

In the absence of tough policing, chaos reigns. Here’s the crux of the law enforcement fantasy.

Ever since unarmed teenager Michael Brown was shot in Ferguson, MO last year, people across the country have taken to the streets en masse to protest police brutality and the mistreatment of black men and women.

At the same time, police officers and pundits have argued that demonstrators are jeopardizing community safety, pointing to rising violent crime rates in recent months. Fanning the flames of the controversy, this week FBI Director James Comey publicly threw his weight behind the idea that restraint by cops in the wake of criticism is at least partly to blame for a surge in violent crime in some cities.

Some law enforcement officials, including Comey, are raising concerns that a spike in crime – or at least the perception that the recent era of historically low crime rates is at risk – could hurt criminal justice efforts.

Mr. Comey made the case that “far more people are being killed in America’s cities this year than in many years — and let’s be clear: far more people of color are being killed in America’s cities this year.

And it’s not the cops doing the killings.” But, the FBI director has conceded that he has little evidence to support his theory that a recent increase in crime was caused by heightened scrutiny of the police.

Furthermore, President Obama’s press secretary has gone on record as having said that available evidence “does not support the notion that law enforcement officers around the country are shying away from fulfilling their responsibilities”.

In truth, the “Ferguson Effect” lacks factual basis.

It took months of nationwide unrest, a litany of shocking videos and detailed reports of police violence to convince the nation that policing in America needed to be fundamentally changed.

The fact that a theory lacking evidentiary support could be so hastily endorsed by some of the nation’s foremost institutions speaks to the enduring power of the belief that aggressive policing is the only way to keep black communities safe.

This notion, applied exclusively to black communities, is exactly what needs to change.

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